Incomplete Equation Page 2 : How To Know The Crisis
If the equation of any crisis is
Realprice + Return rate + ? + ? = ?
From the study of the history of old crisis such as
1. Tom-Yam-Kung crisis in Thailand
2. Hamburger crisis in USA
3. Property crisis in Hong Kong Island during return the island to China
4. Oil crisis during the boom of the electric car in Malaysia and Thailand
We found that all of the crisis must have greed or fear from high investment......We must find what is the cause or factor affecting the price before it become the crisis
1.,2. The state of greed - Tom Yam Kung crisis and Hamburger crisis
If the equation is
Realprice + Return rate + ? + ? = ?
According to the case studies, it has been found that if the result is greed......the variables that may affect the crisis are
d = Distribution between large scale investment and retail
h = High profit from Investment
This variables will give us the equation in the rest is
Realprice + Return rate + d + h = index of greed
Therefore, We must be careful if the crisis happened again are
1. An unusually high rate of return from the investment(h)
2. How many distribution of investments or assets from the major investors to retail(d)? if the retail investor has a lot of Loan agreement or derivatives...We must be careful
3. The state of fear - Property crisis in Hong Kong Island during return the island to China
If the equation is
Realprice + Return rate + ? + ? = ?
According to the case studies, it has been found that if the result is fear.......the variables that may affect the crisis are
d = Distribution between major real estate investment ( Li Ka shing ) and retail
CM = China's measures or rigors after Hong Kong Island to
China
This variables will give us the equation in the rest is
Realprice + Return rate + d + CM = index of fear
Therefore, We must be careful if the crisis(greed) happened again...If Li Ka shing sale all real estate to retail (d) with the good news of China's measures (CM)
4. The state of fear - Oil crisis during the boom of the electric car and the affecting in Malaysia and Thailand
If the equation is
Realprice + Return rate + ? + ? = ?
According to the case studies, it has been found that if the result is fear.....the variables that may affect the crisis are
d = Distribution of oil investment between major(opec and others) and retail
t = Trends in using the electric car
This variables will give us the equation in the rest is
Realprice + Return rate + d + t = index of fear
Due to the oil crisis, it was found that there was not much effect on the Petronas share price in Malaysia but the Thai stock market (ptt and pttep) were sensitive.
From this case it's shows that d (Distribution of large scale investment and retail) of Thailand and Malaysia have different.....Before crisis the free float stock in Thailand is too much in retail investor
Therefore, We must be careful if the crisis happened again is the major investment (opec and others) or government sell all share with bad news about oil investment or good news about electric car
On the other hand, if the major investor is not sell out the stock even though there is the bad news again like the oil will run out of the world.... There is no need for the retail investor to follow sell....it's not a crisis
From all case studies of crisis Whether it is greed or fear found that most assets(loan money,shares,real estate etc.) are still distributed in retail investor before the incident of crisis....the rate of return or other boom factors are just excuse.
ex1., 2. Incomplete Equation
ex3. How To Know The Crisis
ex4. Food Boom & Land
ex5. Robot Boom & Land
ex6. Faith Crisis and The End of The World
